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Brazil

There are 15 attribution studies focusing on events in Brazil. 11 studies found that climate change increased the severity or likelihood of the event.

11 More severe or likely
2 Had no influence
2 Inconclusive

South Amazon drought, 2010

Case 030

Event type

Drought

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region."

South-east Brazil water shortage, 2014-15

Case 108

Event type

Drought

Finding

No discernible human influence

"Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability."

Northeast Brazil drought, 2012-16

Case 189

Event type

Drought

Finding

No discernible human influence

"Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk."

North-east Brazil drought, 2012-16

Case 233

Event type

Drought

Finding

Insufficient data/inconclusive

"Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk."

Impacts of Minas Gerais extreme rainfall, January 2020

Case 382

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"We estimate that >90,000 people became temporarily homeless, and at least BRL 1.3bn ($240m) was lost in public and private sectors, of which 41% can be attributed to human-induced climate change."

Eastern north-east Brazil floods & landslides, May 2022

Case 443

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"[H]uman-induced climate change is, at least in part, responsible for the increase in likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall events as observed in May 2022."

Brazil flooding, May-June 2022

Case 447

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Rainfall events as rare as these, that occurred in a 1.2C cooler climate, would have been approximately a fifth less intense."

Catastrophic floods and landslides in eastern north-east Brazil, May 2022

Case 459

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

Insufficient data/inconclusive

"[A]ll models exhibit systematic errors in precipitation magnitudes…We can therefore not quantify the role of climate change in the observed increase in likelihood and intensity."

Southern Brazil heavy rainfall, 2024

Case 581

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"[We] assess changes in the likelihood and intensity for the 10-day and 4-day heavy rainfall over Rio Grande do Sul and find an increase in likelihood for both events of more than a factor of 2 and intensity increase of 6-9% due to the burning of fossil fuels."

Brazilian Pantanal wildfires, 2024

Case 605

Event type

Wildfire

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Hot, dry and windy conditions that drove devastating Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense due to climate change."

Brazil heatwave, 2023

Case 660

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

Our analysis finds that climate change made all four heatwaves more intense than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate, with strong agreement across models.

Rio de Janeiro extreme heat mortality, 2023

Case 690

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

These findings highlight climate change as the primary driver of extreme temperature intensification, with ENSO acting as a secondary but significant factor in the eastern region…Climate change has contributed to one in three heat-related deaths recorded during the peak of the event.

Brazil landslide linked to extreme rainfall, 2022

Case 708

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

Human-induced climate change made this extreme event 45% and 71% more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively.

Extreme rainfall in Brazilian Amazon, 2021

Case 718

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

This extreme event is 153 % more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years.

Baixada Santista extreme rainfall and landslides, 2020

Case 816

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

[A]nthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of both RX60daymax (representing saturated soil conditions) and RX3daymax (representing landslide triggering precipitation) at levels exceeding those observed in early March 2020 in Baxiada Santista by approximately 42% and 31%, respectively.