South Amazon drought, 2010
Event type
Drought
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region."

South-east Brazil water shortage, 2014-15
Event type
Drought
Finding
No discernible human influence"Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability."

Northeast Brazil drought, 2012-16
Event type
Drought
Finding
No discernible human influence"Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk."

North-east Brazil drought, 2012-16
Event type
Drought
Finding
Insufficient data/inconclusive"Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, we could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk."

Impacts of Minas Gerais extreme rainfall, January 2020
Event type
Impact
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"We estimate that >90,000 people became temporarily homeless, and at least BRL 1.3bn ($240m) was lost in public and private sectors, of which 41% can be attributed to human-induced climate change."

Eastern north-east Brazil floods & landslides, May 2022
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"[H]uman-induced climate change is, at least in part, responsible for the increase in likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall events as observed in May 2022."

Brazil flooding, May-June 2022
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"Rainfall events as rare as these, that occurred in a 1.2C cooler climate, would have been approximately a fifth less intense."

Catastrophic floods and landslides in eastern north-east Brazil, May 2022
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
Insufficient data/inconclusive"[A]ll models exhibit systematic errors in precipitation magnitudes…We can therefore not quantify the role of climate change in the observed increase in likelihood and intensity."

Southern Brazil heavy rainfall, 2024
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"[We] assess changes in the likelihood and intensity for the 10-day and 4-day heavy rainfall over Rio Grande do Sul and find an increase in likelihood for both events of more than a factor of 2 and intensity increase of 6-9% due to the burning of fossil fuels."

Brazilian Pantanal wildfires, 2024
Event type
Wildfire
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur"Hot, dry and windy conditions that drove devastating Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense due to climate change."

Brazil heatwave, 2023
Event type
Heat
Finding
More severe or more likely to occurOur analysis finds that climate change made all four heatwaves more intense than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate, with strong agreement across models.

Rio de Janeiro extreme heat mortality, 2023
Event type
Impact
Finding
More severe or more likely to occurThese findings highlight climate change as the primary driver of extreme temperature intensification, with ENSO acting as a secondary but significant factor in the eastern region…Climate change has contributed to one in three heat-related deaths recorded during the peak of the event.

Brazil landslide linked to extreme rainfall, 2022
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occurHuman-induced climate change made this extreme event 45% and 71% more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively.

Extreme rainfall in Brazilian Amazon, 2021
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occurThis extreme event is 153 % more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years.

Baixada Santista extreme rainfall and landslides, 2020
Event type
Rain & flooding
Finding
More severe or more likely to occur[A]nthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of both RX60daymax (representing saturated soil conditions) and RX3daymax (representing landslide triggering precipitation) at levels exceeding those observed in early March 2020 in Baxiada Santista by approximately 42% and 31%, respectively.
