Return to map

United Kingdom

There are more than 34 attribution studies focusing on events in United Kingdom. 26 studies found that climate change increased the severity or likelihood of the event.

26 More severe or likely
4 Less severe or likely
3 Had no influence
1 Inconclusive

England autumn-winter floods, 2000

Case 011

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"For all but one catchment, emissions are likely to have led to an increased chance of flooding in the October–December period."

England & Wales autumn floods, 2000

Case 012

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"In nine out of 10 cases, our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%"

England warm November, 2011

Case 016

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"The warm November of 2011…corresponds to a return period of 20 years in the 2000s, but a return period of 1250 years in the 1960s, an approximately 62 times increase in occurrence."

UK cold winter of 2010-11

Case 022

Event type

Cold, snow & ice

Finding

Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur

"Yet while the odds of such an event have lengthened as a result of human influence on climate, such unlikely events can still happen, as the winter of 2010/11 demonstrated."

England cold December, 2010

Case 023

Event type

Cold, snow & ice

Finding

Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur

"Therefore, a cold December of –0.7°C is half as likely to occur in the 2000s when compared to the 1960s."

Northwestern Europe wet summers, 2007-12

Case 041

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

No discernible human influence

"We find no evidence that declines in sea ice can explain these recent wet summers, with the expected response to changes in sea ice since the late 1980s being small."

UK summer high rainfall, 2012

Case 042

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

No discernible human influence

"Although the summer UK rainfall in 2012 was unusually large, the model distributions studied suggest that any anthropogenic influence on these patterns was minimal."

UK cold spring, 2013

Case 080

Event type

Cold, snow & ice

Finding

Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur

"Anthropogenic climate change reduced the odds of an extremely cold UK spring in 2013 at least 30 times, as estimated from ensembles of simulations with and without human influences."

Record high central England temperature, 2014

Case 093

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold."

UK extreme winter rainfall, 2013-14

Case 116

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

Insufficient data/inconclusive

"Extreme winter rainfall in the United Kingdom becomes eight times more likely when the atmospheric circulation resembles winter 2013/14, whereas anthropogenic influence is only discernible in extremes with a shorter duration."

UK extreme storm season, winter 2013-14

Case 124

Event type

Storm

Finding

No discernible human influence

"The all-time record number of storms over the British Isles in winter 2013/14 cannot be linked directly to anthropogenic-induced warming of the tropical west Pacific."

UK record winter sunshine, 2014-15

Case 152

Event type

Sunshine

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Extreme winter sunshine in the United Kingdom, as observed in the record high 2014/15 season, has become more than 1.5 times more likely to occur under the influence of anthropogenic forcings."

Southern England floods, winter 2013-14

Case 161

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation."

London summer heatwave deaths, 2003

Case 179

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris."

Central England temperature record, 2014

Case 182

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Human‐induced climate change increased the chance of setting a new heat record in the CET [Central England Temperature] in 2014 by at least a factor 35."

Europe heatwave, June 2017 (UK)

Case 185

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"The team found that climate change made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat at least twice as likely in Belgium, at least four times as likely in France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and central England and at least 10 times as likely in Portugal and Spain".

Storm Desmond-like heavy rains in UK, December 2015

Case 261

Event type

Storm

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency [as a result of climate change]."

UK 'extremely cold start' to spring 2018

Case 302

Event type

Cold, snow & ice

Finding

Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur

"Observational and model analyses suggest a 6- and 12-fold increase in the likelihood of extremely cold days in March in central England, as in year 2018, without anthropogenic climate change."

Scotland heatwave, 2018

Case 320

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely."

UK local temperatures exceeding 30, 35 and 40C, 1960-2019

Case 321

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Compared with the natural world, there are now more areas likely to see temperatures exceeding 30 or 35C, while the 40C threshold is still very rare, even in the southeast."

UK's third warmest year on record, 2020

Case 350

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

Including climate change, the "likelihood estimate increases by around a factor of 50, to 56% (range 53–58%). This suggests that we now expect a year as warm as 2020 every other year."

UK extremely warm days, winter 2018-19

Case 351

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Extremely warm winter days in central England, as in 2018/19, are still very rare, but human influence is estimated to have made them about 300 times more likely."

Record-breaking UK daily rainfall in October 2020

Case 375

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"The record rainfall of the wettest day in year 2020 is estimated to have become about 2.5 times more likely because of human influence."

Mortality from UK heatwave, 2003

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

Findings show that 1,117 "excess deaths are directly attributable to human-induced climate change".

Mortality from UK heatwave, 2018

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

Findings show that 432 "excess deaths are directly attributable to human-induced climate change".

Damages from UK flooding, autumn 2000

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Estimated attributable damages from UK flood events" to human-caused climate change amounts to $3.5bn.

Damages from UK flooding, summer 2007

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Estimated attributable damages from UK flood events" to human-caused climate change amounts to $4.2bn.

Damages from UK flooding, winter 2013-14

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Estimated attributable damages from UK flood events" to human-caused climate change amounts to $450m.

Damages from UK flooding, winter 2015-16

Case 404

Event type

Impact

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Estimated attributable damages from UK flood events" to human-caused climate change amounts to $805m.

UK 40C heat, July 2022

Case 422

Event type

Heat

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Human-caused climate change made the event at least 10 times more likely. In the models, the same event would be about 2C less hot in a 1.2C cooler world."

UK extremely wet May, 2021

Case 444

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Human influence and persistent low pressure are estimated to make extreme May rainfall in the United Kingdom, as in year 2021, about 1.5 and 3.5 times more likely, respectively."

UK winter rainfall extremes, 2015 & 2020

Case 575

Event type

Rain & flooding

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"[F]or all five events we found a significant climate signal in the extreme regional rainfall totals immediately preceding the flooding."

Storm Eunice, February 2022

Case 594

Event type

Storm

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

"Our results robustly indicate that Eunice has become more intense with climate change and similar storms will continue to intensify with further anthropogenic forcing."

UK and Ireland winter storm rainfall, 2024

Case 598

Event type

Storm

Finding

More severe or more likely to occur

" Autumn and winter storm rainfall in the UK and Ireland was made about 20% heavier by human-caused climate change."